In recent years psephologists have been scrutinising the betting markets on elections and it turns out that they are more often correct and more accurately predict the outcome than pundits, or polls.
This Australian Federal Election is no different.
SportsBet is currently offering odds of 1.25 for a Labor win and 3.85 for a Coalition win.
Setting aside questions such as; “Do labor voters punt more regularly than Coalition voters?”, it shows that people are willing to wager good money on a Labor win.
Psychologists suggest that this is a more accurate indication of individual intentions as you may lose your hard earned cash if your punt turns out wrong; whereas if you say to a pollster that you intend to vote one way or another, there are no consequences apart, possibly, from feeling a little chagrinned at being on the losing side. (I don’t think that probably applies in Australia’s tribal politics.)
So I’m going to be following the betting markets ’til election day and see how it turns out.
Spoiler: This didn’t work with the Trump win though odds did shorten considerably in Trump’s favour as polling day loomed. Brexit was the same with markets almost all punting on a remain vote.
But as the guy from Ladbrokes said at the time; “We aren’t in this to predict who will win. We’re in it for the money.” And with the overall betting in favour of remain and the outcome to leave, Ladbrokes made a tidy packet.
Yes Waz at the end of the day the bookie is there to make money, not really caring who wins or loses.
The opinion polls are just that, an opinion. Outside the recent Bennelong by election, I’ve been polled 3 times in 40 odd years. In two weeks in that by election I was polled 8 times, at the end I was just making the answers up.
I’ve been following psephologists, like William Bowe at The Poll Bludger, who polls the polls as well as follows the bookies. His poll of polls have barely moved, since Scotty the Stupid took over. I think the electorate made their minds up last year.
Given I now see myself as semi retired, I’ve been following how the bookmakers are framing this general election, have been since February. Each week I tabulate the odds for each seat seeing if there are any trends; yes a little anal I know, its my political nurdishness. The odds were reframed when the election was called but the changes have been minimal.
Interestingly when I first started Bennelong was in play, I couldn’t really understand why, yes Labor has picked a “star”, who has no intention of moving from Wahroonga or giving up his medical practise. Still somewhat better than the clot who stood last time and stood aside to “allow” Brian Owler to run. Alexander will win Bennelong then retire sometime in the next term. Apparently he as early stage dementia.
The one thing I have noticed is that the bookies have an independent in Viv’s seat now favourite to win, one of the safest coalition seat in the country currently.
Window Dresser's Arms, Pig & Whistle 
In recent years psephologists have been scrutinising the betting markets on elections and it turns out that they are more often correct and more accurately predict the outcome than pundits, or polls.
This Australian Federal Election is no different.
SportsBet is currently offering odds of 1.25 for a Labor win and 3.85 for a Coalition win.
Setting aside questions such as; “Do labor voters punt more regularly than Coalition voters?”, it shows that people are willing to wager good money on a Labor win.
Psychologists suggest that this is a more accurate indication of individual intentions as you may lose your hard earned cash if your punt turns out wrong; whereas if you say to a pollster that you intend to vote one way or another, there are no consequences apart, possibly, from feeling a little chagrinned at being on the losing side. (I don’t think that probably applies in Australia’s tribal politics.)
So I’m going to be following the betting markets ’til election day and see how it turns out.
Spoiler: This didn’t work with the Trump win though odds did shorten considerably in Trump’s favour as polling day loomed. Brexit was the same with markets almost all punting on a remain vote.
But as the guy from Ladbrokes said at the time; “We aren’t in this to predict who will win. We’re in it for the money.” And with the overall betting in favour of remain and the outcome to leave, Ladbrokes made a tidy packet.
I wonder what Antony Green thinks?
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Yes Waz at the end of the day the bookie is there to make money, not really caring who wins or loses.
The opinion polls are just that, an opinion. Outside the recent Bennelong by election, I’ve been polled 3 times in 40 odd years. In two weeks in that by election I was polled 8 times, at the end I was just making the answers up.
I’ve been following psephologists, like William Bowe at The Poll Bludger, who polls the polls as well as follows the bookies. His poll of polls have barely moved, since Scotty the Stupid took over. I think the electorate made their minds up last year.
Given I now see myself as semi retired, I’ve been following how the bookmakers are framing this general election, have been since February. Each week I tabulate the odds for each seat seeing if there are any trends; yes a little anal I know, its my political nurdishness. The odds were reframed when the election was called but the changes have been minimal.
Interestingly when I first started Bennelong was in play, I couldn’t really understand why, yes Labor has picked a “star”, who has no intention of moving from Wahroonga or giving up his medical practise. Still somewhat better than the clot who stood last time and stood aside to “allow” Brian Owler to run. Alexander will win Bennelong then retire sometime in the next term. Apparently he as early stage dementia.
The one thing I have noticed is that the bookies have an independent in Viv’s seat now favourite to win, one of the safest coalition seat in the country currently.
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Given the way he roots around I’d suggest that’s not the only thing that’s growing
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Surely after a lifetime in politics that nose should be much longer, Wazza? I reckon he could probably use it as a third leg by now… 😉
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